It would seem that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are old acquaintances, who speak regularly on the phone, up to seven times since the Republican left the White House in 2021, including after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. This fact, revealed by famous American journalist Bob Woodward in a book that has just been published in the US, War, has not been formally denied by the Trump team. In any case, it does not bode well for the future of Ukraine, whose fate is now largely linked to the outcome of the US presidential election, on November 5.
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The Republican candidate has boasted of being able to resolve the Ukrainian crisis within 24 hours, if elected. No one seriously believes this to be possible, but enough is known about how he sees Russia to imagine the shape of the solution he has envisaged. Indeed, Trump’s vice-presidential nominee, JD Vance, has put forward a scenario that would involve Ukraine’s neutrality – making it impossible for Kyiv to join the Western alliance. This, it should be remembered, is one of Russia’s demands.
Thus, we have to imagine what a possible Trump victory, on November 5 – something perfectly plausible, with three weeks to go before the election – would mean for Ukraine. This time, unlike on November 3, 2020, he’s ready. He has a plan for Ukraine. Logically, he would call for ending American military aid to Kyiv. It wouldn’t stop overnight, but such an announcement would brutally upend the strategic landscape: Europeans are not in a position to compensate for the loss of American aid. The Ukrainian army would find it increasingly difficult to resist the Russian offensive.
Trump could then suggest to Putin that he open negotiations, on terms that are not hard to guess, since Ukrainians would find themselves in a position of weakness. In reality, for Ukraine, these would be defeat negotiations.
The victory of might over right
Let’s not fool ourselves. Ukraine’s defeat would also be Europe’s. For we must now imagine the consequences, for Europe, of a Russian victory in the war of conquest it has been waging for 10 years, against a country which it refuses to let have its own separate destiny.
In this scenario, the first question to be asked about the negotiations is: Would Europeans take part in them? Their presence is undoubtedly the least of the Trump team’s concerns, as they have nothing but contempt for the European Union and have no qualms about imagining themselves directly settling Ukraine’s fate with Moscow. This is a first slap in the face for Europe, which is far more directly concerned than the US by the conflict taking place on its continent. Moreover, it is not clear that a Democratic administration, should Kamala Harris win, has any plan to involve the Europeans more closely in potential negotiations. Indeed, when questioned on the subject by CBS, on October 7, the Democratic candidate limited herself to saying that she would not negotiate with Putin without the Ukrainians. She didn’t mention anyone else.
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Publish date : 2024-10-16 02:44:00
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The post ‘Ukraine’s defeat, if Trump were elected, would also be Europe’s defeat’ first appeared on Love Europe.
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Publish date : 2024-10-16 09:50:35
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