In 2023, much of the decision-making taking place in Latvia was still deeply influenced by Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Latvia’s foreign policy, as outlined in the annual foreign policy report, places primary emphasis on ongoing endeavors to assist Ukraine through military, humanitarian, and diplomatic means.
From the onset of the invasion, Latvia has been at the forefront of nations supporting Ukraine, allocated funding exceeding 1 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP).
According to the latest Eurobarometer survey, conducted in the autumn of 2023, Latvian residents see the war in Ukraine as the most important problem facing the European Union (EU).
However, the war in Ukraine has also been the main driving force of internal affairs, from the reintroduction of compulsory military service in Latvia, to consolidating the media space on national security grounds, to prioritizing military spending over regional development, to a renewed focus on Latvian language as a means of belonging and expressing loyalty. Worries around the loyalty of Russian-speakers, and how to address those fears, will be evident in almost all sections of the report. These suspicion was recently affirmed for many Latvians when a member of European Parliament (MEP) from Latvia was outed as a Russian intelligence agent.
Though developments in 2023 have not warranted score changes, there remain many issues to monitor in the coming year, arguably most important among them the questions around Russian-speakers integration, resulting measures from the Latvian side, Russian-speakers’ reactions, and Russia’s involvement on behalf of the Russian-speaking diaspora will be the most significant.
The Russian-speaking populace in Latvia is sizable, estimated at nearly 30 percent of the population.
As a result of the war in Ukraine, data is showing growing ethnic tensions between speakers of Latvian and Russian, with 37 per cent of Russian speakers surveyed in April 2023 saying that in their own personal experience the attitude of Latvians toward the Russian-speaking population has significantly worsened, up from 19 percent in 2022.
A 2023 study on Russian speakers’ civic engagement found that the most effective tool for alleviating ethnic tensions is constructive dialogue between speakers of Latvian and Russian, whether it addressed wider societal issues or problems affecting their municipality or neighborhood.
However, the recently approved government action plan of 2024 makes no mention of specifically addressing social cohesion issues or promoting dialogue. It proposes a “Latvian and inclusive Latvia,” by focusing on integration through a Latvian-language environment.
However, the swift transition—with little to no consultation with Russian-speakers—to an all-Latvian language environment, from a country that had previously permitted two linguistic bubbles to coexist, is giving propaganda opportunities to Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin has called these Latvian measures “de-Russification” efforts and has issued warnings of “repercussions” in response to Latvia’s approach toward its Russian-speaking minority.
As such, in the coming year ethnic tensions and how Russia will take advantage of the growing uneasiness between Latvia’s two major linguistic groups will be an important issue to watch.
Further, the issue of illegal migration is becoming more acute. In 2023, 13,863 individuals were stopped from illegally crossing the Latvian-Belarusian border—more than double 2022’s figure of 5,286 thwarted illegal crossing attempts—and 428 were granted entry for humanitarian reasons.
The war in Ukraine, coupled with the increase in illegal migration, has forced Latvia to adopt amendments to the State Border Law and the State Border Guard Law, which effectively allow “pushbacks” in which migrants who have crossed the border are collectively forced back over and limit the right of individuals to seek asylum if they have crossed the border in an irregular manner.
The Council of Europe Human Rights Commissioner,
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR),
and Amnesty International
have all criticized these amendments as violating international human rights law. However, the European Commission has defended Latvia’s decision based on the EU’s need to protect its border in the current security environment.
The economic situation leaves much to be desired. According to the 2023 Central Statistics Bureau (CSB) population survey, 22.5 percent of the population were at risk of poverty in 2022, showing no improvement from 2021.
Inflation was high in 2023, and GDP growth miniscule.
The high price of resources used for energy, increases in production costs, and weakening demand in foreign markets all negatively impacted the Latvian economy. Energy independence was a major priority for Latvia in 2023, as Latvia stopped importing Russian natural gas and oil, and is in the final phase of disconnecting from the Russian electricity network. Though the economy reoriented itself away from Russia in theory, increasing trade volume with Central Asian countries has raised suspicions of efforts by the business sector to circumvent sanctions.
Fatigue with the war in Ukraine, in combination with economic hardships and responses by the business sector to the current environment, are issues to watch in 2024.
More positively, 2023 also saw the Saeima (parliament) finally establish civil unions through a series of legislative amendments, providing social and economic protection for unmarried and same-sex couples.
The legislation is nearly 20 years in the making, as the Saeima has repeatedly seen various civil partnership laws introduced and rejected over the past two decades. The civil society sector, and specifically Latvia’s LGBT+ movement, is owed much praise for its tenacity and for finding effective means of working with legislators.
Civil society also showed its growing capacity for self-organization and effecting change through a widely publicized protest dubbed “Democracy Is More Fragile than Porcelain,” which opposed a Russian oligarch’s influence in the municipality of Ogre, and a trade union protest that united 19,000 teachers in demanding higher salaries. Further, civil society and the government of Latvia have found innovative ways of working together. For example, since February 21, 2023, cars confiscated by Latvian authorities from drunk drivers are handed over to a nongovernmental organization (NGO) for delivery to the Ukrainian front.
However, the representation of Latvia’s Russian-speaking minority in civil society and its inclusion in dialogue regarding changes directly affecting their future wellbeing remains a shortcoming in the country’s continuing democratic consolidation.
Finally, important developments in the effectiveness and public perception of anticorruption measures improved the situation around Latvia’s fight against corruption in 2023. Several important pieces of legislation finally entered into force in 2023, such as the Law on Disclosure of Interest Representation—15 years in the making—which aimed to increase transparency in lobbying.
The Latvian public’s perception of corruption and anticorruption measures also improved slightly in 2023.
Several other amended laws, convictions secured in long-running corruption cases, and a high number of opened corruption investigations give reason for optimism that Latvia is on the right path towards tackling corruption. However, there remains much to do, and the sheer number of ongoing corruption investigations inhibits an actual score change in 2023.
Source link : https://freedomhouse.org/country/latvia/nations-transit/2024
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Publish date : 2024-04-11 03:57:00
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The post Latvia: Nations in Transit 2024 Country Report first appeared on Love Europe.
Author : love-europe
Publish date : 2024-10-17 18:10:40
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